Just expanded my biz into the global search industry. My competitors: Bing and that duck. (GOOGL)

GOOGL April 28, 2025 By Brad

Investment Thesis Buy

I'm extremely proud to announce that, today, April 28, 2025, my stock market startup, Uncle Brad Enterprises, entered the search business!

Consider this my press release - Uncle Brad Inc. just bought Google! (well, about 0.0000000000001% of it, anyway)

Why?

Because Google has owned the search market for decades — and I believe it will continue to own it for decades more.

The company's grip on global search traffic is so tight that "Google" isn’t just a company name anymore — it's a verb.

But dominance alone isn’t enough.

Google also checks every financial box I care about:

Revenue Growth: ~18% annually over the last 10 years.
Net Income Growth: ~21% annually over the same period.
Profitability: For every $1,000 I invest today, Google generates about $55 in net income just for me.
Debt Discipline: Google has no net long-term debt.
Owner Alignment: It’s actively buying back pieces of the business from other owners, steadily increasing my ownership share over time.

Oh, and did I mention that I got a stone cold crazy good deal? Consider the following two options that I could have bought with my $1,500 investment:

Option #1: Buy $37 of current net income from a business that:
makes basically everything in the U.S.;
has grown its earnings by 8.7% per year over the last 10 years;
has grown its revenue by 6.8% per year over the last 10 years; and
carries about $240 of long-term debt.

Option #2: Buy $55 of current net income from a business that:
utterly dominates its market (search);
has grown its earnings by 21% per year over the last 10 years;
has grown its revenue by 18% per year over the last 10 years; and
has no long-term debt.

It's a no-brainer. Even if Option #2's growth rate gets cut in half going forward, Option #2 will still be making almost 2x as much as Option #1 in five years.

Option #1: S&P 500
Option #2: Google

And the opportunity isn't just about search anymore.

Google Cloud is a serious contender in enterprise cloud services.
It’s quietly building the digital infrastructure layer for artificial intelligence — especially for businesses, not just consumers.
While AI headlines get gobbled up by flashier companies, Google is positioning itself to be the backend engine that powers a huge piece of the AI economy.

My new "search" line of business, representing about 15% of the total investment by Uncle Brad Inc., should grow substantially over the coming years. I'm excited to entrust it to the highly competent managers that are making bank for Uncle Brad Inc.

Investment Criteria

For Success:

Continued dominance of search; no meaningful shift away from Google and to ChatGPT and other A.I.s by consumers for their search needs

Risks to Consider:

People shift away from Google for their search needs and to a competing platform - e.g., TikTok, ChatGPT, etc.

Anticipated Hold Period:

Long-term (3-5 years)

Investment Amount

$1500

Decision

Buy

Conviction Level

High - This division gets a corner office. Glass walls. Real plants.

Your Share of Net Income

$49.95

Competitive Analysis

Competitive Advantage

My new search biz dominates all other search. So much so that it's a verb.

And it will continue to dominate search, so long as A.I. doesn't fundamentally shift users away from search and into ChatGPT and the like.

Key Non-Financial Metrics

Development of the A.I. Mode for its search ... and then monetization of the same.

Net Income Projections

Net Income

CAGR: 22.4%

Analyst Notes:

Hard to argue with ten years of results like this. That's quite the track record.

Operating Margin Analysis

CAGR: 2.4%

Analyst Notes:

No comments provided by the analyst.

What is Operating Margin?

Operating margin measures a company's profit from operations as a percentage of revenue. It shows how efficiently a company can generate profit from its core business operations, before accounting for interest and taxes. Higher margins typically indicate better operational efficiency.

Dividends

Analyst Notes:

Not much in the way of dividends - and that's a good thing.
When my new biz line makes returns on invested capital like this one does, there's no point paying it out, anyway - put that cash to work instead!

Payout Ratio

Analyst Notes:

I'm thrilled that my underlings whom I've put in charge of this line of my biz have decided to reinvest most of the cash - they're good at that.

Revenue

CAGR: 18.2%

Analyst Notes:

Demand shows no signs of slowing.

Avg Annual Growth Rate (10Y)

Balance Sheet Cash

CAGR: 4.6%

Analyst Notes:

Glad to have some cash in the bank. Glad it exceeds long-term debt.

Debt

CAGR: 19.8%

Analyst Notes:

My biz's search segment doesn't even need debt to fuel its growth.

Free Cash Flow

CAGR: 17.5%

Analyst Notes:

No comments provided by the analyst.

Cash Flow from Operations

CAGR: 18.7%

Analyst Notes:

Cha-ching

Conclusion

I'm thrilled to have added a new search line of business to Uncle Brad Enterprises.

Monopoly on search = dominant traffic source
18% revenue growth, 21% net income growth (10Y averages)
No net debt = balance sheet fortress
$55 of net income for every $1K invested
Relentless buybacks = growing my ownership over time
Cloud + AI upside = second act already happening

To do: Let it compound.

Comments

2 Comments

Brad

May 31, 2025, 03:38 AM

Update 5/30/2025 (cont'd): And there's one other area where it has a tremendous advantage - speed. One of the reasons I don't use ChatGPT to search for commercial things I want to buy (I still use Google for that) is that ChatGPT is slow comparatively speaking. You have to open the app ... takes a few seconds ... type your query and click enter ... wait a couple more seconds... and then watch as it populates the result, line-by-line ... takes another 10 seconds or so. Google is much faster. Type query. Click enter. BOOM - immediate results. I didn't think they'd be able to replicate that in AI Mode, ... but, I'll be darned, ... they seem to have done so. It is lightning fast. And it will only get faster. Which means people will continue using Google. I also think they can still win the AI war for consumer attention by launching soon (like ASAP) an app through the browser - or AI mode - that functions as a quasi-ChatGPT ... but that is free. It seems a lot of people are not subscribers to ChatGPT; they just use the free version. If Google can offer a better and more powerful free version, whether through Gemini or AI Mode, it is likely to keep its current user base, rather than have them leak over to ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, etc. Bottom line - I think Google is another HUGE winner from AI. In 10 years, I could see it 5x the earnings power of where it is today. In 15 years, I could see another 10x from where it is today.

Brad

May 31, 2025, 03:34 AM

Update 5/30/2025: Well, today was a big day for my search business. Apparently, my business line is so powerful that a court has concluded it has a monopoly. And now the government a court to force me to divest of my Chrome browser. That would be highly problematic for my business, as that is likely the way that a lot of my business line's VERY powerful and TREMENDOUSLY impressive A.I. will ultimately be fed to consumers at large. But even in spite of that court case (which, for the record, I think will just result in my company not being able to pay fees to Apple and Samsung to be the default browser), the future is EXCEPTIONALLY BRIGHT. Gemini 2.5 is now probably the most powerful model out there. I've used it in COLAB for coding, and I can say beyond any doubt as follows: It is better than ChatGPT; it is faster than ChatGPT; and it is far more integrated that ChatGPT. They also have a TON of other AI that is just going to win, win, win. VEO3. AlphaEvolve. A.I. Mode search. And the list goes on. And here's something about the core business. People are freaking out like it's gonna go away. Uhh, no. Even if they lose some market share, there are a few truths here - (i) the total volume of searches, especially with AI Mode rolling out, will go way, way higher; (ii) no one I know uses ChatGPT and other LLMs as a way to buy most stuff - that mainly still goes through a Google search; (iii) none of the other LLMs have optimized for serving up ads, but Google will; and (iv) no other LLM has the ability to monetize via a huge base of existing advertisers like Google does. Google will still DOMINATE.